Seminar

Advanced Forecasting in Energy Markets

Name in diploma supplementAdvanced Forecasting in Energy Markets
Organisational Unit Juniorprofessur für Umweltökonomik, insb. Ökonomik erneuerbarer Energien (https://www.uee.wiwi.uni-due.de/)
LecturersJun.-Prof. Dr. Florian Ziel
SPW2LanguageEnglish
Cyclesummer semesterParticipants at most20

Preliminary knowledge

Good knowledge of linear models and autoregressive processes. Experienced R knowledge. Sucessful participation in Econometrics of Electricity Markets is very helpful.

Abstract

The purpose of this seminar is to provide an advanced understanding of modeling and forecasting methods in energy markets, esp. concerning probabilistic forecasting. The students apply sophisticated forecasting methods to real data (e.g. electricity or natural gas prices, electricity load, wind and solar power production) using the statistical Software R. They write a report and present their findings.

The focus of the seminar is placed especially on probabilistic forecasting with different applications in e.g. electricity price and electricity load or wind and solar power production forecasting. A particular attention is given to regression-based modeling methods for electricity market data.

Contents

  1. Introduction to probabilistic forecasting
  2. Forecasting evaluation in probabilistic forecasting frameworks
  3. Applications to energy market data

Literature

  • Hong, T., Pinson, P., Fan, S., Zareipour, H., Troccoli, A., & Hyndman, R. J. (2016). Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global energy forecasting competition 2014 and beyond.
  • Nowotarski, J., & Weron, R. (2017). Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

Teaching concept

In the first few weeks the students learn the concepts of probabilistic forecasting in classes. Afterwards they apply the methods to energy market data using R, write a report and present their results.

Participants

  • BWL EaF Master 2015>Seminarbereich >Modul "Advanced Forecasting in Energy Markets"2nd-3rd Semester, Elective
  • ECMX Master 2019>Wahlpflichtbereich >Bereich Economics >Modul "Advanced Forecasting in Energy Markets"1st-3rd Semester, Elective
  • MuU Master 2013>Seminarbereich Märkte und Unternehmen >Modul "Advanced Forecasting in Energy Markets"2nd-3rd Semester, Elective
  • VWL Master 2009-V2013>Seminarbereich >Modul "Advanced Forecasting in Energy Markets"2nd-3rd Semester, Elective
WIWI‑C1106 - Seminar: Advanced Forecasting in Energy Markets